The Good: Canola futures regained their footing today as the nearby January contract closed at C$545.80 per tonne. This has pushed canola futures back in the trading range established at the recent contract high. This has pushed cash bids in deferred positions back over C$12.00 per bushel. The bullish fundamentals are still intact for the canola rally, with strong Chinese rapeseed oil prices, increasing palm and soybean oil values and very strong domestic and export demand.
The Bad: Ethanol production in the U.S. was one of the concerns that pushed the markets down last week, but weekly production increased by 20,000 barrels per day to 961,000 barrels per day. The bad news is that this production rate is still the lowest in the past five years for this week in the year. This will done little to allay fears that domestic demand in the U.S. will be weak for the ethanol industry.
The Ugly: The U.S. presidential election is still not decided and it appears that there will still be some doubt in the results for the next few days. The Senate appears to have remained in Republican control. The fact that the U.S. will not be able to declare a winner for a number of days is not a good look for the world’s leading democracy.