Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

Experts

 

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: Statistics Canada released their September canola crush statistics this morning with another record month in the books. September canola crush was 785,725 tonnes, which pushed the total crush this crop year to 1.6 million tonnes. More than 2.5 million tonnes have been exported so far this crop year, which means that canola use is well ahead of last year. If you have a crush similar in October to last year, that would put total use during the first quarter of 2020-21 well over 5.0 million tonnes.

The Bad: Despite the encouraging usage statistics for canola, the January futures contract dropped by 0.71 per cent to close at C$544  per tonne. The drop marks the second session of a lower close in canola, but most bullish technical trading levels remain intact. The evidence of strong demand (see The Good) continues to point to very tight ending stocks at the end of the crop year.

The Ugly: The December New York Heating Oil contract closed lower today which continues the low price trend since the beginning of the pandemic. The heating oil contract is a proxy for diesel prices in the U.S., which continues the trend for lower energy costs until the economy begins to recover. Although diesel stocks are declining in the U.S., prices have not responded due to weak demand. Although this is bad news for oil producers and refiners, this is an encouraging trend for energy users.