The Good: The wheat market is on the move with gains in the winter wheat markets pushing spring wheat above the US$5.50 per bushel mark for the first time since April. Despite the rally, the Minneapolis December contract closed at essentially the same level as the Kansas City contract. Export bids for spring wheat are still trading at a 10 to 15 cents per bushel discount to HRW wheat in nearby and 2021 delivery slots. This price discount will keep spring wheat exports strong in the coming months.
The Bad: Argentina production estimates are dropping with the Bolsa des Cereales Rosario (Rosario Grain Exchange) pushing their latest estimates to 17 million tonnes. USDA is currently forecasting a dropping production of 760,000 tonnes to 19 million tonnes. There is still time for the crop in Argentina to regain some yield potential as crops in the central and southern areas of the country are still mostly in the vegetative growth stage. Rains are needed soon in order to maintain yield potential of the wheat crop in Argentina. If production drops to 17 million tonnes, the 2020 crop will be the smallest since 2015.
The Ugly: The western half of the U.S. is in a severe drought which is spreading into the High Plains and western Corn Belt regions. The biggest impact of the drought is on winter wheat crops, from the white winter wheat in the PNW to the HRW growing regions from the Texas Panhandle to Montana. The winter wheat planting progress is ahead of normal, but rains are urgently needed to get crops established before the arrival of winter. The Southern Plains is expecting dry weather over the next seven days.