The Good: Wheat markets continued their slow climb today with spring wheat futures finishing the day up three to four cents per bushel. The USDA came out with a relatively bearish report on the international side on Friday, but global prices continue to move higher. European, Black Sea and U.S. markets are all worried about dryness this fall, which is adding to the bullish momentum. Of the various classes of wheat, spring wheat has been the laggard, but the relatively cheap valuation of spring wheat is showing up in the exports and export sales. Spring wheat exports in the U.S. led all classes at 259,416 tonnes of wheat during the week ending on on October 8th.
The Bad: There was no surprise that canola futures finished lower today and markets had to make up for the big drop in the soybean markets on Monday. All things considered, a drop of only C$2.00 per tonne today was only a modest decline. The market is trying to digest the bullish global situation with the plentiful supplies of canola that have just been harvested. Demand for canola remains strong from both the domestic crush market and export destinations.
The Ugly: The HRW crop is 74 per cent planted in Kansas as of this week, but most of the crop has been sown into very dry soils. There have been some storms moving through the Southern Plains in the past two months, but amounts were light and very scattered. The bulk of the region has received less than 50 per cent of normal precipitation since the middle of August. The dry weather has helped with planting, but rains are needed soon or winter wheat conditions will become ugly very quickly.