Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm



The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: The hog market is staging a counter seasonal rally this year as the nearby October contract has posted gains during the past six sessions and is not poised to test the highs set in late April. The U.S. hog market is still adjusting to the change in demand caused by COVID-19, but usually hog prices hit their lows in the fall. Export demand for pork remains strong with net sales last week hitting 53,846 tonnes.  Total exports and sales of U.S. pork this year have hit 1.55 million tonnes, which is up 42 per cent from last year at this time. This is an encouraging sign for U.S. corn demand in the coming crop year as prices begin to improve.

The Bad: The loonie moved lower today and broke the down trend that started at the beginning of the month. Nearby futures closed the day at 76.07 U.S. cents. The fate of the loonie is largely in the hands of the U.S. greenback, which has been working lower over the past five months. Of course the stronger Canadian dollar has an impact on farm gate prices for agriculture commodities. Fortunately the rally in commodity prices has overshadowed the stronger loonie.

The Ugly: The good from yesterday became the ugly in today as canola markets gave back about half of yesterday’s gains. The impact of the frost on immature canola was forgotten in the past 24 hours. Country selling pressure was highlighted as one of the reasons that canola dropped in today’s session. The drop in nearby futures pushed November canola futures to C$505.40 per tonne. One of the contributing factors to the drop in canola was weaker soil oil futures, which traded down over 0.5 per cent during the session. The good news in today’s ugly trading day is that the upward trend in canola remains intact.