The Good: In the sea of bearish information contained the in the USDA report, world rapeseed production was cut by 1.71 million tonnes to 68.14 million tonnes. This estimate pushed production lower than last year for the first time since estimates began in May. The drop in rapeseed production came mostly from Ukraine, which saw a reduction of 1.5 million tonnes from last report. The drop in Ukraine production will limit the export availability for European crushers. This decrease in export competition is positive for Canadian exports to Europe this crop year. One of the few positive gems in a WASDE report that was almost uniformly negative.
The Bad: USDA’s first surveyed yield estimate for soybeans came in at a record 53.3 bushels per acre. Record yields are expected from Missouri to Ohio with Mississippi, Michigan and South Dakota thrown in for good measure. The record yields pushed crop production to 4.42 billion bushels, which is just under the record production set in 2018. These are bearish numbers anyway you slice it.
The Ugly: The North Dakota crop tour indicated that yields would likely be lower than the July estimates, but the USDA report indicated otherwise. Other spring wheat production moved up five per cent to 577.5 million bushels. The spring wheat yield was forecast to hit a record 49 bushels per acre. Durum yields also increased 11 per cent from the July estimates, which pushed production to 61.8 million bushels. With spring wheat prices hovering close to contract lows, the increased production will continue to prevailing bearish sentiment.