The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: After July wheat had a small down day yesterday, planting concerns pushed the nearby contract up by 6.75 cents per bushel. The July contract closed the day at US$12.14 per bushel. Spring wheat was pushed higher by HRW futures, which rallied on stressful conditions in the Southern Plains this afternoon. The high in Dodge City, Kansas this afternoon was 31C with only 22 per cent humidity. That certainly is not ideal conditions for wheat that is just heading out in the region. Spring wheat has its own planting issues with more rain forecast for North Dakota and Minnesota later this week. Just a word of warning – planting issues can rapidly devolve into a bear market when the weather changes.

The Bad: The deferred canola contracts were positive on the day, but the July contract dropped C$21.40 per tonne. This pushed the nearby contract back to the bottom end of the current trading range with it settling on the day at C$1135.50 per tonne. There its likely some spread activity in the July contract as commercials and speculators  move positions to the November contract from the July. The concern with the performance of the July contract today was that both palm and soybean oil futures were higher in trading today. August Matif rapeseed futures which is a new crop position even was up by 0.5 per cent.

The Ugly: The rains over the past weekend have been a case of too much in the eastern Prairies with most of the region picking up 15 mm to 45 mm from the storms. The heaviest rains last week were located in the Peace River region where the slow moving slow pushed 25 mm to 60+ mm into the region. This will continue planting delays in the region and dry weather is needed in northern Alberta, eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba to dry soils. On the other side of the coin is the dry areas of the Prairies in western Saskatchewan and southern Alberta were mostly dry. This improved planting progress this week, but rains are urgently needed in the region.