Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

Experts

 

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: The March contract closed the day at C$1,002.70 per tonne which is just under the contract high established on November 26th. The gain came despite lower soybean oil futures, which were down by 1.4 per cent on the day. Soybean oil futures were lower despite the fact that India has purchased a total of 53,000 tonnes of soybean oil during the past two days. It is interesting that the tightness of the canola situation allowed March canola to approach contract highs, while soybean oil remains entrenched in a bearish downward trend that has been in place since the middle of October.

The Bad: The barley exports slowed down during the past week with 24,500 tonnes of exports inspected by the CGC during the week ending on  December 12th. The crop year to date exports now total 1.34 million tonnes, which are now 110,000 tonnes behind last year’s pace. The current export forecast for bulk barley exports is 2.05 million tonnes which means that even with the slower barley exports, over two-thirds of the bulk exports have been made so far this crop year. Barley exports still need to slow down in order to keep ending stocks reasonable at the end of the 2021-22 crop year.

The Ugly: If you were thinking that Canadian feed grains prices had an unlimited upside, the latest U.S. corn export statistics to Canada should cause some pause to that notion. Export sales were 272,570 tonnes for the week ending on December 9th, while shipments were 158,575 tonnes. That brings total commitments to 2.58 million tonnes so far in the crop year (corn) that began on September 1st. Corn sales and shipments are record setting by a wide margin for this time of the crop year. Canadian corn commitments are the fourth largest of the U.S. export ledger with only China, Mexico and Japan buying more corn.