Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

Experts

 

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: The canola exports last week dropped to only 64,400 tonnes as the impact of the rail outages in Vancouver had an impact on shipments. In fact, Vancouver exported no canola last week, with 63,700 tonnes of the weekly exports moving from Prince Rupert. It appears that exports through Prince Rupert are about to pick up with wheat and canola vessels currently at anchor and two wheat vessels due to arrive next week. At the same time, rail shipments are back moving into Vancouver. Rail shipments into Vancouver terminals last week totalled 127,200 tonnes last week and tonnage is bound to increase with the opening of the CN line earlier this week.

The Bad: The canola losing streak continued today with the January contract closing down C$2.40 per tonne to C$1005.60 per tonne. This marks the fifth trading day in a row of losses in the nearby canola contract. With the holiday trade already beginning in canola, most market participants are exiting their January position and moving them into the March and May contracts. Pressure is also coming from outside markets, especially soybean oil, which was down another 2.2 per cent on the day.  The positive side of the down move in canola has been that the moves have been relatively small on each day. Nevertheless, it would like to see canola have a positive day one of these weeks.

The Ugly: U.S. CPI data today showed that the inflation rate in the U.S. is the highest since June of 2021. The November CPI data showed a 6.8 per cent increase in prices and the core rate (minus food and energy) came in at 4.9 per cent. Inflation in June of was running at 6.91 per cent and was headed downward as high interest rates and a recession were pushing inflation lower. Inflation would end 1982 at a modest 3.8 per cent level. This would mark a long period of low inflation and even deflation. The question is whether this inflationary pressure will continue into 2022. Meanwhile just listen to your dusty copy of “The Wall” by Pink Floyd that was released in May of 1982 in order to relive the experience of the last time inflation was this high!