Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm



The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: March spring wheat futures were up 14.75 cents during today’s trading session, which pushed the contract to close at US$10.46 per bushel. The recent gains point to a potential breakout from the current trading range that began at the end of October. The Australian situation continues to worsen, which should support wheat values in the long term. Spring wheat has been reluctant to follow the winter wheat contracts, but spring wheat is now becoming undervalued. Keep a close eye on spring wheat and the spread to Kansas City futures in the coming days and weeks.

The Bad: The oat market posted the second consecutive lower session with the March contract dropping 11.75 cents per bushel today. Chicago  March oat futures closed the day at US$7.45 per bushel and tested the US$7.34 mark during the trading session. The next important statistics for the oat market is the December 3rd Statistics Canada report that will outline new production estimates for the crop. MarketsFarm is currently forecasting a drop of nearly 150,000 tonnes from the current Statistics Canada estimate due to a drop in harvested area and yields. It is obvious from the price action that the market is still trying to find a price that will ration demand for the small Canadian crop.

The Ugly: The CP mainline opened today and CN announced that it would be opening their line from Kamloops to Vancouver tomorrow. The only fly in the ointment is that the forecast for BC continues to point to significant rainfall over the next few days. Amounts will be mostly between 75 and 125 mm with the heaviest amounts expected in southern Alaska and northern coastal BC. Amounts in southern BC will still be enough to add to the problems from the rains that came last week. Hopefully their isn’t too much duct tape and baling wire in the track repairs that were done over the past week. Southern BC just can’t seem get a break!