Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

Experts

 

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good: Canola continues on a roll with the nearby January contract closing the trading day up C$20.90 per tonne at 1,025.30 per tonne. Earlier this week we were worried about the impact of the psychological C$1,000 per tonne level. Soybean meal provided very strong support for the oilseed complex today, but canola was headed higher regardless of outside factors. Strong canola exports were reported by the CGC as 247,900 tonnes were shipped during the week ending on November 7th. Total crop year exports to date are currently 1.8 million tonnes which is over 40 per cent of the total exports projected by MarketsFarm.

The Bad: Spring wheat futures (December) finished the trading session slightly lower (3.25 cents per bushel), which stopped the three day winning streak for the contract. Significant spreading activity is underway as the contract is now within two weeks of options expiry. Traders are finishing the roll to the March contract, which will result in some selling pressure in the December contract. The move lower in spring wheat was disappointing as the winter wheat contracts were up four to five cents per bushel. It is especially disappointing in light of the USDA export sales report which indicated strong HRS sales of 156,936 tonnes for the week. HRW reported a paltry 59,650 tonnes for the week, which should have supported spring wheat over winter wheat contracts.

The Ugly: Wheat exports during the past week (week 14) totalled only 130,200 tonnes which pushed the total exports so far this crop year to 3.42 million tonnes. Exports have flattened over the past month despite and are losing ground to other crops. Of course the small crop is limiting exports, but the slowing in demand is a concern. With relatively large supplies compared with other crops, wheat should be leading the export pace this year. The good news is that export pace is still ahead of the rate that is needed to hit the 11 million tonne export target of MarketsFarm.