Glacier FarmMedia COVID-19 & the Farm

Experts

 

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good, Bad & Ugly

The Good:  Canola futures moved sharply higher today as the January contract tried to make up for the losses in the last two trading sessions. The January contract closed the day up C$18.20 per tonne to close the session at C$943.50 per tonne. The canola market is now taking its signals from the European canola futures contract. The February European rapeseed contract closed the day up 1.6 per cent at 650.50 Euros per tonne. European rapeseed futures closed the day at a C$53.42 per tonne premium (February to January 2021) to ICE canola.

The Bad: Soybean harvest progress slowed in the U.S. last week with 73 per cent of the crop harvested during the week ending on October 24th. The progress is slowed because moderate to heavy rains moved through the eastern and central Corn Belt. The heaviest rains fell from central Iowa to northwestern Ohio, which is the core soybean growing region in the U.S. Rainfall amounts over the past week ranged from 50 to 125 mm through the region. This will slow harvest in the coming week as soils will have to dry out before harvest can resume. More rain (25 mm to 50mm) is forecast for the Corn Belt in the coming week.

The Ugly: Canola futures are moving higher, but the relative value to soybeans also continues widen. This makes sense as the global market is short vegetable oil and has surplus of soybean meal. The premium for canola remained very steady from mid-July to mid-September. The spread is at an all time high with the current spread over double the previous high of C$177.23 per tonne set in February 2008. Today’s close was C$370.07 per tonne.