The Good: The railways are reporting record grain movement in June and are expecting a strong finish to the crop year. June grain movement for CN totalled 2.7 million tonnes which broke the previous record of 2.44 million tonnes. CP reported June grain movement hit 2.76 million tonnes and was also higher than the record 2.4 million tonnes that occurred in 2014. If you add the volumes of the two railways together, Canadian June grain movement hit 5.46 million tonnes, which is up by close to 17 per cent above the previous record.
The Bad: The Brazilian real has dropped significantly from the rally that moved the currency from 20 U.S. cent mark to 18 U.S. cents today. The drop in the currency should make Brazilian corn more competitive in the international market, but prices in Brazilian ports still remain above U.S. values. Corn harvest in Brazil (of the safrinha crop) is about 50 per cent complete. Soon harvest pressure should push Brazilian prices below U.S. values. Currently the difference in price between Paranagua and New Orleans is in the 15 to 25 cent per bushel range.
The Ugly: Speaking of Brazil, COVID19 cases have spiked over the past two weeks with 1.7 million cases reported to date. That includes the Brazilian president Bolsonaro who was diagnosed this week. The spike has brought Brazil into second place in the COVID-19 case race, but the country is still behind the U.S. case total. The problem in Brazil is that the death rate is also rising with over 68,000 reported to date.