The Good: Barley exports have been strong this year as Canada has been able to take advantage of the fact that Australian exports have been restricted by a lack of supplies. A recent factor has been a ban on Australian barley imports in China due to “dumping”. The exports of barley to China are down slightly for this crop year, but remains strong at 1.2 million tonnes for the crop year to the end of May. The total Canadian exports to the end of June have reached 1.96 million tonnes which is the second largest total in the past ten years. Improving conditions for the Australian crop may lead to reduced exports in the 2020-21 crop year, but this is good news for Canadian exports over the next six to seven months,
The Bad: Even though the canola market was up today, the upward resistance level of C$480.00 per tonne held during the session. Overnight trade is moving canola lower this evening, which shows that the resistance level continues to be a formidable barrier to higher prices. Positive fundamental news is needed to push canola through this technical level. Don’t expect too much help from the soybeans before the USDA report on Friday as the futures market will likely trade sideways during the rest of the week. Weather forecasts for the Corn Belt are not helpful as more rain is expected over the next week in the central and eastern regions on the weekend.
The Ugly: The infrared satellite image of the Prairies shows the tremendous lift that is present in the atmosphere over western Saskatchewan and eastern Alberta. Severe weather conditions are being reported across the region this evening with heavy rains and cloud rotation that could produce some tornados. Keep safe out there.