The Good: Canola futures managed to hold off the late day sell off and close up slightly in today’s trading session. One of the complications today was the fact that the U.S. futures markets ended the day early (12:00 CDT) while canola continued to trade until the end of the regular session. Without U.S. participation in the trading, volumes dropped and canola drifter lower. This is likely a good indication of what trade will be like in canola futures in the overnight session and most of the regular session tomorrow. The good news is that the November contract has worked its way back to within range of the recent highs. Unfortunately the C$480 per tonne level marks significant resistance which has not been breeched during both the May and June rallies.
The Bad: Corn export sales were dismal at 361,100 tonnes during the week ending on June 25th. The total commitments with nine weeks left in the crop year are lowest since 2012-13 at 42.3 million tonnes. With time running out in the crop year it is likely that exports will remain at seven year lows. The corn situation received some very bullish news in the acreage report, but the recent rally is likely overdone as corn conditions remains very good in the Corn Belt. The drop in corn prices today (down seven cents per bushel) reflects the limited impact of the area estimate.
The Ugly: The rains over the past week have certainly been welcome in some areas of the Prairies, but heavy rainfall has continued to fall in northern Alberta and western Manitoba. The flooding situation is serious in both areas with the potential for a dam failure in Western Manitoba (Rapid City) a distinct possibility. Northern Alberta has been hit with persistent rainfall over the past six weeks, which has brought 1.5 to 2.0 times normal precipitation. This is certainly an ugly situation in both regions of the Prairies.