The Good: The eastern areas of the Prairies continues to pick up moisture today as moderate to heavy snowfall continues from Regina to eastern Manitoba. The total amounts from the storm are forecast to range between 15 mm and 35 mm of water equivalent precipitation. This is much needed moisture for the region and should provide enough starting moisture for cereal crops. The bad news is that precipitation has been light west of Regina and most of Alberta. The 8 to 14 day forecast is calling for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for most of Alberta. Dryness still is the main concern across the Prairies, although it is good to see that it can rain or snow after such a long dry spell.
The Bad: Kansas winter wheat conditions improved during the past week with 55 per cent of the crop rated as good to excellent. The ratings are the second highest in the past five years with only the 2019 crop in better shape for this week. There were some declines in crop ratings in the HRW region, with Texas reporting a drop of two per cent to 28 per cent good to excellent. Colorado ratings were down one per cent to 27 per cent good to excellent. Although some states are reporting some crop deterioration due to dry subsoil moisture conditions, winter wheat condition remains above average for this time of year. This is not good news for North American wheat prices.
The Ugly: The spring wheat market dropped along with the other wheat futures market, pulling back the gains posted last Friday. This has been the story of the wheat market over the past month or two with the futures market testing contract highs and then being pulled back down by gravity. The spring wheat market was not only under pressure from the rain/snow in the Northern Plains, but also on the positive growing conditions across the Northern Hemisphere for the 2021 wheat crop. The market expects USDA to forecast a record global crop for 2021 when the estimates are released in May. Unless weather problems begin to develop soon. the wheat market is likely to follow the corn and soybean markets.