The Good: It doesn’t look that spectacular on the chart, but todays spring wheat move in the nearby contracts held important technical levels in the face of lower winter wheat futures in both Chicago and Kansas City. The technical victory may be short lived as the spring wheat crop was rated as 82 per cent good to excellent. The early overnight session trade seems to be holding the gains, but the real test for spring wheat will be tomorrow morning’s open. Spring wheat needs to hold these gains. Spring wheat exports last week totalled 118,963 tonnes, which continues the relatively strong export pace of wheat. Most of the spring wheat exports were destined for South East Asia – especially the Philippines.
The Bad: The stronger loonie trend continued in the regular trading session today with the nearby futures closing at 74.83 U.S. cents. The loonie has now closed the gap that was established on March 9th and is now poised to try to test the 75 cent level. There is significant resistance at the 75 cent level so it will take some heavy lifting for the loonie to move higher from here. Should we push through the 75 cent level, the next stop will be the contract highs at 77.2 U.S. cents. This is not good news for Canadian export competitiveness.
The Ugly: The slow planting progress continues in northern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan as rains on the weekend and today continue to slow progress. This is a critical week for progress in these regions as time on the calendar is running out. The forecast is calling for drier conditions for the second half of the week, but the soil moisture conditions in the northern regions are saturated.