The Good: We finally got a glimpse at the export destinations for grains and oilseeds today and the data for April is quite revealing for canola. The exports to China dropped by close to 66 per cent to 118,100 tonne in April. This is not entirely unexpected as the domestic rapeseed harvest in China begins in May. The big news from the exports to Europe more than doubled from March exports to 344,200 tonnes. This makes the European Union the largest customer of Canadian canola this year with total exports in this crop year of 1.73 million tonnes. The increase in European exports will likely tail off as the harvest approaches in Europe (July), but should remain strong in May and June. Canola exports were strong last week at 224,400 tonnes and certainly some of those exports will find their way to Europe.
The Bad: I hate to look a gift horse in the mouth but, although canola traded higher in the overnight session, the market did back off in the last 30 minutes of the session. This does not point to a strong open tomorrow. The market has had a tendency to sell off on Friday’s as traders take risk off the table for the weekend. Be prepared for a subdued trading session overnight and a possible lower open tomorrow morning.
The Ugly: The U.S. unemployment filing data came in close to market expectations this morning at only 1.88 million people. This has been called continued improvement, but the May unemployment rate tomorrow in the U.S. will be the worst levels since the Great Depression. Analysts forecast that the U.S. unemployment rate will be 19.5 per cent during the month. The Canadian unemployment data will also be released tomorrow with expectations of a 14 per cent unemployment rate. Any way you slice it – these numbers are going to ugly.