The Good: The spring wheat market finished off the week on a strong note, with nearby March futures settling up 14 cents per bushel. July futures were up 12.50 cents per bushel to close the week at US$6.47 per bushel. The July contract is still 10 cents below the recent market highs. The main reason that wheat is in rally mode is the strength in the corn market, but strong spring wheat sales in Canada and the U.S. continue to provide support for the market.
The Bad: Canola markets were down on the day, despite strength in the soybean futures. The March contract (aka the casino contract) was down C$7.50 per tonne to C$691.60 per tonne. The March contract is at a C$47 per tonne premium to the July contract, which is larger than usual. To have an inverse in the canola futures markets is not unusual, but the large spread is not typical. This is why I refer to the March contract as the casino contract.
The Ugly: Enjoy the weekend weather, because winter will return by next week at this time. The “polar vortex” will return during the second half of the week, with the upper air flow coming directly from the arctic regions. This is a far more typical pattern during a La Nina than the current zonal flow. The bad news is that the polar air mass will likely stick around for at least a week.