The Good: The market did a turnaround Tuesday in the canola market as the oilseed complex decided to focus on the fundamental situation for the global markets. South America remains on the dry side, with the southern areas of Brazil and Argentina receiving below normal precipitation over the past two weeks. Although soybean exports sales have slowed from the U.S., they are still running well ahead of the pace needed to reach the current USDA export estimate. Likewise, canola exports remain robust
The Bad: One of the reasons that the spring wheat market has been under pressure recently is that managed money funds are increasing their short position in Minneapolis. CFTC data for December 21st indicated that funds had added a net short of 795 contracts (108,182 tonnes) to their position. Spring wheat futures are still net long 2,402 contracts for managed money funds, which is the most neutral position of the three major wheat contracts. Until the sentiment towards spring wheat changes, expect the market to engage in the volatile up and down roller coaster. March spring wheat contract closed up today and settled at US$5.805 per bushel.
The Ugly: The St Lawrence seaway shipping season is coming to a close on Thursday with locks expected to close on December 31st. There maybe some stragglers that move through the locks until they physically freeze up, but for all intents and purposes, the shipping season is over. It has been a strong start to the 2020-21 crop year with 1.36 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds exported from Thunder Bay and 3.97 million tonnes from Thunder Bay through week 19 of the crop year. The seaway usually opens at the end of March depending on ice conditions on the lakes and locks.